Post-WJC/U23 Development: Canada

In a short piece on FasterSkier the other day, I showed a graph that examined the FIS points vs. age trends of skiers broken down by their success at WJCs or U23s.  In it, I highlighted only the American athletes, apart from the general trends for all skiers.

I thought that I’d continue with a short series of posts where I recreate the same graph, but highlighting the development patterns of athletes from different nations.  I’m not going to analyze these graphs at great length.  Rather I’ll just focus on showing some interesting data.  First, we’ll look at Canada (click through for larger version):

Each panel displays the FIS points vs. age for athletes who’s best result at WJCs or U23s was 1-5, 6-10, etc.  The blue trend lines represent the average trend across all skiers in each panel.  The red trend lines are the average of just the Canadian athletes in each panel.  The names of the Canadians in each panel are shown.

I thought I’d expand on these graphs a little and give you an alternate version with a trend line for each Canadian individually:

I apologize for not labeling the red trend lines with names more precisely, so that you can tell which line goes with which name.  In the men’s 6-10 panel, it wasn’t really possible, and in most other cases which name goes with which line should be fairly obvious if you’re familiar with the athletes and the ages at which they’ve competed.

Note the large differences between these two graphs in the women’s 6-10 panels.

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Related posts:

  1. Performance vs Age Redux: Grover’s Graph
  2. Skiing Performance and Age

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4 Responses to “Post-WJC/U23 Development: Canada”
  1. marshall says:

    Pretty amazing how perfectly the Canadian men have tracked exactly along the average based on WJr results. Harvey being the (fairly small) exception. To a degree I think this suggests that the Canadians have gotten their development pipeline figured out in a way that really helps athletes reach their potential, at least as well as the other countries posting results at World Juniors. Although now that I look back at it, the American men look like they follow the normal trajectory too (minus Whitney). Maybe It’s just that we don’t have enough results in the Top 20 for this to be a very useful glimpse at how the U.S. and to a lesser extent, Canada, develops athletes…hard to know when to try and read some sort of meaning from the graph and when to just say “this is what happened”.

    In an unrelated note, the fasterskier link from your US WJr./U23 post is misspelled/broken.

    • Joran says:

      Hopefully the link is fixed now, thanks.

      The success of this particular crop of Canadian men certainly reflects well on whatever it is they’re doing up there. I agree, though, that we can’t make sweeping conclusions about what “works” based just on a graph of some results data. What might become clearer when I start showing this graph for other nations is that our “development pipeline” is quite a bit smaller, so what “works” might to some extent be the ability to get larger numbers of skiers to the level of a top-15 or top-10 result at WJCs which increases the likelihood that at least some of them “make it”. Other than that, my only point in these graphs was how variable they are…


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