Prediction Game: Who’s Gonna Podium In Their Very Next Race?

Five mystery skiers, all women.  For each skier, their very next  (distance) race is a WC, OWG or WSC race.  Which of them are going to finish on the podium (top 3) in their very next race?

To make things a bit more challenging, I’ve omitted the x axis labels (which is date, not age), so you can’t work backwards from what season I’ve stopped each graph in.  Update: Just to clarify, the tick marks on the x axis represent a time gap of about five years. But I will tell you that the races that I have plotted aren’t limited to major international competitions (WC, OWG, WSC); I’ve plotted every distance result I have for each skier.

Update2: Apparently I can’t seem to write very clearly this morning.  It should also help to know that the “next race” each skier is about to do is potentially a completely different race.  So it’s not like they (or any of them) are about to compete in the same race against each other.

I will also tell you that there is at least one skier who podiums and that for those who do podium, it’s their first career podium.

Leave your guesses in the comments!

I’d say I’m going to post the answers tomorrow, but my traffic probably isn’t high enough to warrant that quick a turnaround.  How about we leave this open until Friday?

Update 3: Yet another reader requests a hi-re version of the graph.  Honestly, I don’t think it will help much.  But I am nothing if not responsive to my readers (click through for full version):


Related posts:

  1. Podium Heartbreak
  2. What Does It Take To Win A Medal? (con’t)

About Joran


7 Responses to “Prediction Game: Who’s Gonna Podium In Their Very Next Race?”
  1. Brayt says:

    Does each graph show 3 seasons of results, or are we looking at something different?

    • Joran says:

      Each graph is displaying a different number of seasons for each athlete, although each is using the same scale for the x axis. So the tick marks on the x axis mark the same date in each graph, I’ve just omitted the labels, you don’t know what the dates are exactly.

      Also, I should point out that these are the results only up to a certain point for each athlete. Each one’s career might continue for quite some time beyond what I’ve plotted for them. So I’ve cut off potentially a bunch of races for each athlete; the question is which one(s) are going to podium in their very next race.

    • Joran says:

      Ah, now I see what you’re seeing. The major tick marks on the x axis indicate years, and I should have given you some sense of time scale. The major tick marks are about 5 years apart. I’ll edit the post to clarify.

  2. marshall says:

    I’m going with D. Skier C looks to be much more consistent but maybe less likely to pop a great one. Except for the one result, C has barely been under 25 FIS points and hasn’t really been trending faster over time.

  3. MB says:

    I think E has a shot. She’s been steadily improving for the last five years.

  4. AED says:

    I’m going to guess B and D. And E. Maybe C.

  5. Lori Wakley says:

    Skier B will podium

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