Rogla Distance Races

Oh yeah, there were some distance races in Rogla on Saturday too, huh?

Once again, this will be short on the words; just some pretty pictures. The US women had another strong outing:

Once again I’d note the continued downward trends for Holly and Kikkan and the generally flat trend for Liz. (Ida still has too few races for trends to be particularly meaningful.) In particular, I would emphasize that Kikkan’s classic skiing is showing the sort of trend her freestyle skiing has shown for a few years now:

Alex Harvey and Devon Kershaw were probably hoping for more on Saturday, and although their results weren’t terrible, they also weren’t all that great (for them):

The final thing I’ll note is that I noticed that the Russian women put three folks in the top ten on Saturday, a fairly strong showing for them. A sign of a resurgence for the Russian women? Well…

In Ivanova’s case, that race appears to be at her ceiling (or floor, I suppose if we associate down with better performance). As for Iksanova and Medvedeva, it’s still a bit early to tell, but it’s a good sign for those ladies to be starting out with results in the negative zone of these graphs.

 

Related posts:

  1. Davos Recap: Distance
  2. La Clusaz Recap: Distance Mass Start
  3. Mid-Season Recap: North American Distance
  4. Rogla Sprints
  5. World Champs Preview: Distance

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Comments

3 Responses to “Rogla Distance Races”
  1. A fan from Berlin says:

    Just a question? Why is Alevtina Tanygina on power rank 5?? I think the 33th place from Kuusamo should not be sufficient…
    Anyway I have to say that in my opinion the power rankings are too nervous. You should reduce the k-Factor in your Elo System to recieve more realistic and useful results.

    • Joran says:

      You’re absolutely right, something funny is going on with Tanygina. (I suspect its related to how “new” skiers are treated, rather than the k-factor in general.) As I mentioned, the power rankings are still a work in progress. I fully expected to have to tinker with them a bit as the season unfolded to fix things. I’ve just been busy and was planning on looking more closely at that during the break in the WC schedule for the holidays.

      That said, I also agree that I’ve set up my elo system to be somewhat “nervous”, as you phrased it. That was mostly intentional. I was aiming for a system that measured performance in a relatively short time window and that didn’t have a very long memory. That was simply the sort of measure that I happened to be interested in; it doesn’t represent any strong belief on my part that this represents True Absolute Ability or something. But I will definitely be re-evaluating it over the next week or two and probably tweaking some things.

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