Handicapping WSC 10/15km Freestyle

I haven’t had as much time to pour into longer projects for posts this winter, so I really just slapped this together very quickly. I won’t get into too many of the technical details, but basically this is the result of a simple model that looks at people’s results given the length, technique and type (interval, mass start, etc.) and then makes a performance prediction for each skier if they were to do a 10/15km freestyle interval start race.

In order to keep the model well behaved, I had to make some executive decisions, mostly about who to include in the first place. I went the easy route and simple grabbed people who have actually done one of these events at the WC levels in the past few seasons and who has also raced this year. So there are surely some folks here who might not be selected for their nation’s WSC team, and some others are missing entirely who might very well show up at WSC. Consider this a rough starting point.

The other major piece is that races in the model are weighted such that more recent ones have more impact. Roughly speaking, races from this season count the most, and those from 2 seasons ago count the least, which was as far back as I drew data.

The result is a list of the “top 30” men and women for this event:

MenWomen
NORTHUG PetterBJOERGEN Marit
HELLNER MarcusJOHAUG Therese
LEGKOV AlexanderSKOFTERUD Vibeke W
BAUER LukasKALLA Charlotte
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY MartinKOWALCZYK Justyna
COLOGNA DarioSTEIRA Kristin Stoermer
OLSSON JohanKRISTOFFERSEN Marthe
POLTARANIN AlexeyTCHEKALEVA Yulia
ROETHE SjurFESSEL Nicole
HOFER DavidRANDALL Kikkan
VYLEGZHANIN MaximNISKANEN Kerttu
MANIFICAT MauriceWENG Heidi
JESPERSEN ChrisFALLA Maiken Caspersen
JAKS MartinJACOBSEN Astrid
RICKARDSSON DanielBROOKS Holly
BELOV EvgeniyROSHINA Tatjana
KUEHNE AndyLAHTEENMAKI Krista
PERL CurdinHAAG Anna
CLARA RolandSHEVCHENKO Valentina
HARVEY AlexROPONEN Riitta-Liisa
FILBRICH JensZELLER Katrin
HEIKKINEN MattiISHIDA Masako
BABIKOV IvanBLECKUR Sofia
DUVILLARD RobinSARASOJA-LILJA Riikka
REICHELT TomSAARINEN Aino-Kaisa
HALFVARSSON CalleSTEPHEN Elizabeth
ANGERER TobiasAHERVO Laura
CHERNOUSOV IliaJEZERSEK Barbara
FISCHER RemoDIGGINS Jessica
GAILLARD Jean MarcKYLLOENEN Anne

Related posts:

  1. North American WSC Assessment
  2. WSC Freestyle Sprint Recap
  3. WSC Men’s 15km Classic Recap
  4. WSC Men’s 15km Classic: North Americans
  5. WSC Women’s 30k Recap

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