WSC 30/50km Mass Start Seeding

Just as with the previous seeding tables I’ve produced, here’s one for the upcoming WSC mass start. Again, this ignores issues of who might actually start the race (e.g. Astrid Jacobsen makes my list here) and some folks who may only have done a small number of races will be excluded.

MenWomen
NORTHUG PetterBJOERGEN Marit
BAUER LukasKOWALCZYK Justyna
COLOGNA DarioJOHAUG Therese
ANGERER TobiasSTEIRA Kristin Stoermer
VYLEGZHANIN MaximISHIDA Masako
OLSSON JohanWENG Heidi
SOEDERGREN AndersFESSEL Nicole
ROENNING EldarKALLA Charlotte
RICKARDSSON DanielHAAG Anna
ELIASSEN PetterKRISTOFFERSEN Marthe
CHERNOUSOV IliaSAARINEN Aino-Kaisa
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY MartinJACOBSEN Astrid
KERSHAW DevonKYLLOENEN Anne
DI CENTA GiorgioROPONEN Riitta-Liisa
LEGKOV AlexanderIVANOVA Julia
GLAVATSKIKH KonstantinDE MARTIN TOPRANIN Virginia
HELLNER MarcusZELLER Katrin
JAKS MartinAHERVO Laura
DOTZLER HannesRANDALL Kikkan
TSCHARNKE TimROTCHEVA Olga
FILBRICH JensBOEHLER Stefanie
HARVEY AlexLAHTEENMAKI Krista
GAILLARD Jean MarcMEDVEDEVA Polina
KROGH Finn HaagenIKSANOVA Alija
ERIKSSON JensSARASOJA-LILJA Riikka
DYRHAUG NiklasSTEPHEN Elizabeth
BESSMERTNYKH AlexanderNOVIKOVA Valentina
RENNEMO KristianJEAN Aurore
DOLIDOVICH SergeiAGREITER Debora
BABIKOV IvanLINDBORG Sara

To give you a sense of the model’s actual relative predictions, here’s a simple dotplot with the output for the top 30 seeds. I’ve omitted the units on the x axis, since they are essentially meaningless.

wsc_mass_seed

 

So, what I mean by “ignore the units on the x axis” is simply to just qualitatively read the gaps between the skiers. So the model thinks that Northug and Bauer are somewhat more strongly favored that everyone else, and then things decay relatively evenly after that. On the other hand, the model doesn’t think that Bjoergen is a slam dunk, which I think is sort of questionable. Part of the issue here may be the simple paucity of data on long mass start classic races. It’s just not an event that’s done that frequently anymore. But generally, the model likes Marit, Kowalcayk and Johaug more than anyone else (and in that order), which means that the model is at least passing the most basic sanity check.

I suspect that Liz Stephen is being penalized somewhat for the difference between her skating and classic results, and Kikkan is being penalized somewhat for the difference between her results in shorter versus longer events. Kris Freeman and Noah Hoffman weren’t terribly close to the top 30 here, as the model put them in 40th and 41st respectively, just in front of Andrew Newell, actually, in 46th.

Related posts:

  1. Handicapping WSC 10/15km Freestyle
  2. How I Learned to Start Worrying and Hate the F-Factor (Part 1)
  3. La Clusaz Recap: Distance Mass Start
  4. Race Snapshot: IBU WC 8 Men/Women’s Mass Start
  5. The Difference Between Mass Start And Interval Start Races In One Graph

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