Race Snapshot: Davos Freestyle Sprint

Men:

 

davos_fr_spr_men

Women:

davos_fr_spr_wom

Race Snapshot: Davos 15/30k Freestyle

Men:

davos_men

Women:

davos_wom

Race Snapshot: Davos 10/15k Freestyle

The men’s race:

davos_men

The women’s race:

davos_wom

Race Snapshot: Davos Classic Sprint

A short summary of these graphs can be found here.

Men’s race:

davos_men_spr

Women’s race:

davos_wom_spr

 

Davos Seeding

I posted these a while back, but since the Davos races are just around the corner, I thought I’d put them up again so we can see just how wrong I am!

Basically, I came up with a way to try to develop a somewhat more sophisticated “seeding” that takes into account the specific event in question. I haven’t edited the list to remove people who are sick, injured or just skipping the Davos races. Anyone who’s done a decent number of WC races this season, plus at least one of this particular format are included, and I’m showing the top 30 seeds.

For the distance race:

MenWomen
NORTHUG PetterBJOERGEN Marit
HELLNER MarcusJOHAUG Therese
LEGKOV AlexanderSKOFTERUD Vibeke W
BAUER LukasKALLA Charlotte
JOHNSRUD SUNDBY MartinKOWALCZYK Justyna
COLOGNA DarioSTEIRA Kristin Stoermer
OLSSON JohanKRISTOFFERSEN Marthe
POLTARANIN AlexeyTCHEKALEVA Yulia
ROETHE SjurFESSEL Nicole
HOFER DavidRANDALL Kikkan
VYLEGZHANIN MaximNISKANEN Kerttu
MANIFICAT MauriceWENG Heidi
JESPERSEN ChrisFALLA Maiken Caspersen
JAKS MartinJACOBSEN Astrid
RICKARDSSON DanielBROOKS Holly
BELOV EvgeniyROSHINA Tatjana
KUEHNE AndyLAHTEENMAKI Krista
PERL CurdinHAAG Anna
CLARA RolandSHEVCHENKO Valentina
HARVEY AlexROPONEN Riitta-Liisa
FILBRICH JensZELLER Katrin
HEIKKINEN MattiISHIDA Masako
BABIKOV IvanBLECKUR Sofia
DUVILLARD RobinSARASOJA-LILJA Riikka
REICHELT TomSAARINEN Aino-Kaisa
HALFVARSSON CalleSTEPHEN Elizabeth
ANGERER TobiasAHERVO Laura
CHERNOUSOV IliaJEZERSEK Barbara
FISCHER RemoDIGGINS Jessica
GAILLARD Jean MarcKYLLOENEN Anne

And the sprint:

SeedMenWomen
1BRANDSDAL EirikBJOERGEN Marit
2NORTHUG PetterKOWALCZYK Justyna
3JOENSSON EmilFALLA Maiken Caspersen
4KRIUKOV NikitaDOTSENKO Anastasia
5PETERSON TeodorKALLA Charlotte
6HATTESTAD Ola VigenKYLLOENEN Anne
7RETIVYKH GlebVISNAR Katja
8CHEBOTKO NikolayRANDALL Kikkan
9JAUHOJAERVI SamiMATVEEVA Natalia
10GOLBERG PaalSHAPOVALOVA Evgenia
11DEVJATIAROV Mickail Jun.LAHTEENMAKI Krista
12NEWELL AndrewBRUN-LIE Celine
13JAPAROV DmitriyMALVALEHTO Mona-Liisa
14PANZHINSKIY AlexanderGAIAZOVA Daria
15PETUKHOV AlexeiSAARINEN Aino-Kaisa
16LASSILA KalleFALK Hanna
17COLOGNA DarioOESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad
18GAFAROV AntonFESSEL Nicole
19ROENNING EldarSMUTNA Katerina
20KUMMEL PeeterEIDE Mari
21STRANDVALL MatiasWENG Heidi
22PENTSINEN AnssiPAJALA Magdalena
23WENZL JosefFABJAN Vesna
24HALFVARSSON CalleINGEMARSDOTTER Ida
25POLTARANIN AlexeyJACOBSEN Astrid
26EDIN JohanNISKANEN Kerttu
27HARVEY AlexIVANOVA Julia
28PAAKKONEN LasseHERMANN Denise
29DAHL John KristianVAN DER GRAAFF Laurien
30SELLIS SiimPROCHAZKOVA Alena

Davos Classic Sprint Field Handicap

I got some positive feedback about my tentative handicapping of the field for one of the WSC events, so I thought I’d sink some more time in it. I went back and changed the modeling technique rather dramatically to make it more flexible (and hopefully more accurate). But the basic idea is the same. In order to be included in this “seeding list”, you have to have done at least one event of the given type in the past few seasons and minimum number of races in total over three seasons (10, which is a pretty low bar). Races from the current season are still weighted more heavily than those from previous seasons.

It does not consider “external” information, like health or injury information, or other factors that might prevent people from starting at all. In any case, here’s a handicapping of the field for the classic sprint in Davos in a week or so:

SeedMenWomen
1BRANDSDAL EirikBJOERGEN Marit
2NORTHUG PetterKOWALCZYK Justyna
3JOENSSON EmilFALLA Maiken Caspersen
4KRIUKOV NikitaDOTSENKO Anastasia
5PETERSON TeodorKALLA Charlotte
6HATTESTAD Ola VigenKYLLOENEN Anne
7RETIVYKH GlebVISNAR Katja
8CHEBOTKO NikolayRANDALL Kikkan
9JAUHOJAERVI SamiMATVEEVA Natalia
10GOLBERG PaalSHAPOVALOVA Evgenia
11DEVJATIAROV Mickail Jun.LAHTEENMAKI Krista
12NEWELL AndrewBRUN-LIE Celine
13JAPAROV DmitriyMALVALEHTO Mona-Liisa
14PANZHINSKIY AlexanderGAIAZOVA Daria
15PETUKHOV AlexeiSAARINEN Aino-Kaisa
16LASSILA KalleFALK Hanna
17COLOGNA DarioOESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad
18GAFAROV AntonFESSEL Nicole
19ROENNING EldarSMUTNA Katerina
20KUMMEL PeeterEIDE Mari
21STRANDVALL MatiasWENG Heidi
22PENTSINEN AnssiPAJALA Magdalena
23WENZL JosefFABJAN Vesna
24HALFVARSSON CalleINGEMARSDOTTER Ida
25POLTARANIN AlexeyJACOBSEN Astrid
26EDIN JohanNISKANEN Kerttu
27HARVEY AlexIVANOVA Julia
28PAAKKONEN LasseHERMANN Denise
29DAHL John KristianVAN DER GRAAFF Laurien
30SELLIS SiimPROCHAZKOVA Alena

Brandsdal rides to the top here despite having only 3rd and 4th place in classic sprints so far this season. His strong classic sprints from last spring are helping him out here, despite their being down-weighted.

I’m going to continue to play with this, and see what falls out…

Davos Recap

North Americans

Each weekend seems to be an interesting mix of results for the North Americans. Starting with the women (Davos result circled in blue):

Compared to this season, that was an off day for Kikkan, but compared to last season that was pretty typical. Part of me wonders if she dialed it back a bit late in the race when she knew she wasn’t feeling strong to save some energy for the sprint. But as you can see from her graph, if that’s going to be her “bad” race this season, she’s going have a strong set of results this year.

I’m very cautious about jumping on bandwagons when someone pops a good race or two, but Holly Brooks is beginning to convince me. That’s three good (and one OK) distance results in a row now. More importantly, I like the direction her trend is heading. It’s still early, so it’ll only take a few mediocre races to flatten that trend out, but so far it looks promising.

You can’t deny that Liz Stephen has had some strong results so far this season. My only concern is that they have all been roughly where we’ve seen her topping out before. Can her good days inch up towards the top ten?

As for the men: Read more

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