Race Snapshot: Davos Classic Sprint
A short summary of these graphs can be found here.
Men’s race:
Women’s race:
Davos Seeding
I posted these a while back, but since the Davos races are just around the corner, I thought I’d put them up again so we can see just how wrong I am!
Basically, I came up with a way to try to develop a somewhat more sophisticated “seeding” that takes into account the specific event in question. I haven’t edited the list to remove people who are sick, injured or just skipping the Davos races. Anyone who’s done a decent number of WC races this season, plus at least one of this particular format are included, and I’m showing the top 30 seeds.
For the distance race:
| Men | Women |
|---|---|
| NORTHUG Petter | BJOERGEN Marit |
| HELLNER Marcus | JOHAUG Therese |
| LEGKOV Alexander | SKOFTERUD Vibeke W |
| BAUER Lukas | KALLA Charlotte |
| JOHNSRUD SUNDBY Martin | KOWALCZYK Justyna |
| COLOGNA Dario | STEIRA Kristin Stoermer |
| OLSSON Johan | KRISTOFFERSEN Marthe |
| POLTARANIN Alexey | TCHEKALEVA Yulia |
| ROETHE Sjur | FESSEL Nicole |
| HOFER David | RANDALL Kikkan |
| VYLEGZHANIN Maxim | NISKANEN Kerttu |
| MANIFICAT Maurice | WENG Heidi |
| JESPERSEN Chris | FALLA Maiken Caspersen |
| JAKS Martin | JACOBSEN Astrid |
| RICKARDSSON Daniel | BROOKS Holly |
| BELOV Evgeniy | ROSHINA Tatjana |
| KUEHNE Andy | LAHTEENMAKI Krista |
| PERL Curdin | HAAG Anna |
| CLARA Roland | SHEVCHENKO Valentina |
| HARVEY Alex | ROPONEN Riitta-Liisa |
| FILBRICH Jens | ZELLER Katrin |
| HEIKKINEN Matti | ISHIDA Masako |
| BABIKOV Ivan | BLECKUR Sofia |
| DUVILLARD Robin | SARASOJA-LILJA Riikka |
| REICHELT Tom | SAARINEN Aino-Kaisa |
| HALFVARSSON Calle | STEPHEN Elizabeth |
| ANGERER Tobias | AHERVO Laura |
| CHERNOUSOV Ilia | JEZERSEK Barbara |
| FISCHER Remo | DIGGINS Jessica |
| GAILLARD Jean Marc | KYLLOENEN Anne |
And the sprint:
| Seed | Men | Women |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | BRANDSDAL Eirik | BJOERGEN Marit |
| 2 | NORTHUG Petter | KOWALCZYK Justyna |
| 3 | JOENSSON Emil | FALLA Maiken Caspersen |
| 4 | KRIUKOV Nikita | DOTSENKO Anastasia |
| 5 | PETERSON Teodor | KALLA Charlotte |
| 6 | HATTESTAD Ola Vigen | KYLLOENEN Anne |
| 7 | RETIVYKH Gleb | VISNAR Katja |
| 8 | CHEBOTKO Nikolay | RANDALL Kikkan |
| 9 | JAUHOJAERVI Sami | MATVEEVA Natalia |
| 10 | GOLBERG Paal | SHAPOVALOVA Evgenia |
| 11 | DEVJATIAROV Mickail Jun. | LAHTEENMAKI Krista |
| 12 | NEWELL Andrew | BRUN-LIE Celine |
| 13 | JAPAROV Dmitriy | MALVALEHTO Mona-Liisa |
| 14 | PANZHINSKIY Alexander | GAIAZOVA Daria |
| 15 | PETUKHOV Alexei | SAARINEN Aino-Kaisa |
| 16 | LASSILA Kalle | FALK Hanna |
| 17 | COLOGNA Dario | OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad |
| 18 | GAFAROV Anton | FESSEL Nicole |
| 19 | ROENNING Eldar | SMUTNA Katerina |
| 20 | KUMMEL Peeter | EIDE Mari |
| 21 | STRANDVALL Matias | WENG Heidi |
| 22 | PENTSINEN Anssi | PAJALA Magdalena |
| 23 | WENZL Josef | FABJAN Vesna |
| 24 | HALFVARSSON Calle | INGEMARSDOTTER Ida |
| 25 | POLTARANIN Alexey | JACOBSEN Astrid |
| 26 | EDIN Johan | NISKANEN Kerttu |
| 27 | HARVEY Alex | IVANOVA Julia |
| 28 | PAAKKONEN Lasse | HERMANN Denise |
| 29 | DAHL John Kristian | VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien |
| 30 | SELLIS Siim | PROCHAZKOVA Alena |
Davos Classic Sprint Field Handicap
I got some positive feedback about my tentative handicapping of the field for one of the WSC events, so I thought I’d sink some more time in it. I went back and changed the modeling technique rather dramatically to make it more flexible (and hopefully more accurate). But the basic idea is the same. In order to be included in this “seeding list”, you have to have done at least one event of the given type in the past few seasons and minimum number of races in total over three seasons (10, which is a pretty low bar). Races from the current season are still weighted more heavily than those from previous seasons.
It does not consider “external” information, like health or injury information, or other factors that might prevent people from starting at all. In any case, here’s a handicapping of the field for the classic sprint in Davos in a week or so:
Seed Men Women
1 BRANDSDAL Eirik BJOERGEN Marit
2 NORTHUG Petter KOWALCZYK Justyna
3 JOENSSON Emil FALLA Maiken Caspersen
4 KRIUKOV Nikita DOTSENKO Anastasia
5 PETERSON Teodor KALLA Charlotte
6 HATTESTAD Ola Vigen KYLLOENEN Anne
7 RETIVYKH Gleb VISNAR Katja
8 CHEBOTKO Nikolay RANDALL Kikkan
9 JAUHOJAERVI Sami MATVEEVA Natalia
10 GOLBERG Paal SHAPOVALOVA Evgenia
11 DEVJATIAROV Mickail Jun. LAHTEENMAKI Krista
12 NEWELL Andrew BRUN-LIE Celine
13 JAPAROV Dmitriy MALVALEHTO Mona-Liisa
14 PANZHINSKIY Alexander GAIAZOVA Daria
15 PETUKHOV Alexei SAARINEN Aino-Kaisa
16 LASSILA Kalle FALK Hanna
17 COLOGNA Dario OESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad
18 GAFAROV Anton FESSEL Nicole
19 ROENNING Eldar SMUTNA Katerina
20 KUMMEL Peeter EIDE Mari
21 STRANDVALL Matias WENG Heidi
22 PENTSINEN Anssi PAJALA Magdalena
23 WENZL Josef FABJAN Vesna
24 HALFVARSSON Calle INGEMARSDOTTER Ida
25 POLTARANIN Alexey JACOBSEN Astrid
26 EDIN Johan NISKANEN Kerttu
27 HARVEY Alex IVANOVA Julia
28 PAAKKONEN Lasse HERMANN Denise
29 DAHL John Kristian VAN DER GRAAFF Laurien
30 SELLIS Siim PROCHAZKOVA Alena
Brandsdal rides to the top here despite having only 3rd and 4th place in classic sprints so far this season. His strong classic sprints from last spring are helping him out here, despite their being down-weighted.
I’m going to continue to play with this, and see what falls out…
Davos Recap
North Americans
Each weekend seems to be an interesting mix of results for the North Americans. Starting with the women (Davos result circled in blue):
Compared to this season, that was an off day for Kikkan, but compared to last season that was pretty typical. Part of me wonders if she dialed it back a bit late in the race when she knew she wasn’t feeling strong to save some energy for the sprint. But as you can see from her graph, if that’s going to be her “bad” race this season, she’s going have a strong set of results this year.
I’m very cautious about jumping on bandwagons when someone pops a good race or two, but Holly Brooks is beginning to convince me. That’s three good (and one OK) distance results in a row now. More importantly, I like the direction her trend is heading. It’s still early, so it’ll only take a few mediocre races to flatten that trend out, but so far it looks promising.
You can’t deny that Liz Stephen has had some strong results so far this season. My only concern is that they have all been roughly where we’ve seen her topping out before. Can her good days inch up towards the top ten?
As for the men: Read more
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