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Davos Classic Sprint Field Handicap

I got some positive feedback about my tentative handicapping of the field for one of the WSC events, so I thought I’d sink some more time in it. I went back and changed the modeling technique rather dramatically to make it more flexible (and hopefully more accurate). But the basic idea is the same. In order to be included in this “seeding list”, you have to have done at least one event of the given type in the past few seasons and minimum number of races in total over three seasons (10, which is a pretty low bar). Races from the current season are still weighted more heavily than those from previous seasons.

It does not consider “external” information, like health or injury information, or other factors that might prevent people from starting at all. In any case, here’s a handicapping of the field for the classic sprint in Davos in a week or so:

[table id=84 /]

Brandsdal rides to the top here despite having only 3rd and 4th place in classic sprints so far this season. His strong classic sprints from last spring are helping him out here, despite their being down-weighted.

I’m going to continue to play with this, and see what falls out…

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