Davos Classic Sprint Field Handicap

I got some positive feedback about my tentative handicapping of the field for one of the WSC events, so I thought I’d sink some more time in it. I went back and changed the modeling technique rather dramatically to make it more flexible (and hopefully more accurate). But the basic idea is the same. In order to be included in this “seeding list”, you have to have done at least one event of the given type in the past few seasons and minimum number of races in total over three seasons (10, which is a pretty low bar). Races from the current season are still weighted more heavily than those from previous seasons.

It does not consider “external” information, like health or injury information, or other factors that might prevent people from starting at all. In any case, here’s a handicapping of the field for the classic sprint in Davos in a week or so:

SeedMenWomen
1BRANDSDAL EirikBJOERGEN Marit
2NORTHUG PetterKOWALCZYK Justyna
3JOENSSON EmilFALLA Maiken Caspersen
4KRIUKOV NikitaDOTSENKO Anastasia
5PETERSON TeodorKALLA Charlotte
6HATTESTAD Ola VigenKYLLOENEN Anne
7RETIVYKH GlebVISNAR Katja
8CHEBOTKO NikolayRANDALL Kikkan
9JAUHOJAERVI SamiMATVEEVA Natalia
10GOLBERG PaalSHAPOVALOVA Evgenia
11DEVJATIAROV Mickail Jun.LAHTEENMAKI Krista
12NEWELL AndrewBRUN-LIE Celine
13JAPAROV DmitriyMALVALEHTO Mona-Liisa
14PANZHINSKIY AlexanderGAIAZOVA Daria
15PETUKHOV AlexeiSAARINEN Aino-Kaisa
16LASSILA KalleFALK Hanna
17COLOGNA DarioOESTBERG Ingvild Flugstad
18GAFAROV AntonFESSEL Nicole
19ROENNING EldarSMUTNA Katerina
20KUMMEL PeeterEIDE Mari
21STRANDVALL MatiasWENG Heidi
22PENTSINEN AnssiPAJALA Magdalena
23WENZL JosefFABJAN Vesna
24HALFVARSSON CalleINGEMARSDOTTER Ida
25POLTARANIN AlexeyJACOBSEN Astrid
26EDIN JohanNISKANEN Kerttu
27HARVEY AlexIVANOVA Julia
28PAAKKONEN LasseHERMANN Denise
29DAHL John KristianVAN DER GRAAFF Laurien
30SELLIS SiimPROCHAZKOVA Alena

Brandsdal rides to the top here despite having only 3rd and 4th place in classic sprints so far this season. His strong classic sprints from last spring are helping him out here, despite their being down-weighted.

I’m going to continue to play with this, and see what falls out…

Related posts:

  1. Davos Recap: Distance – North Americans
  2. Race Snapshot: Davos WC Sprint
  3. Recap: Davos Sprint
  4. Recap: Davos Sprint Con’t
  5. Rybinsk Field Strength And The Resurgent US Women

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